Drone Pilots Found to Get Stress Disorders Much as Those in Combat Do

U.S. Air Force/Master Sgt. Steve Horton

Capt. Richard Koll, left, and Airman First Class Mike Eulo monitored a drone aircraft after launching it in Iraq.

The study affirms a growing body of research finding health hazards even for those piloting machines from bases far from actual combat zones.

“Though it might be thousands of miles from the battlefield, this work still involves tough stressors and has tough consequences for those crews,” said Peter W. Singer, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who has written extensively about drones. He was not involved in the new research.

That study, by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, which analyzes health trends among military personnel, did not try to explain the sources of mental health problems among drone pilots.

But Air Force officials and independent experts have suggested several potential causes, among them witnessing combat violence on live video feeds, working in isolation or under inflexible shift hours, juggling the simultaneous demands of home life with combat operations and dealing with intense stress because of crew shortages.

“Remotely piloted aircraft pilots may stare at the same piece of ground for days,” said Jean Lin Otto, an epidemiologist who was a co-author of the study. “They witness the carnage. Manned aircraft pilots don’t do that. They get out of there as soon as possible.”

Dr. Otto said she had begun the study expecting that drone pilots would actually have a higher rate of mental health problems because of the unique pressures of their job.

Since 2008, the number of pilots of remotely piloted aircraft — the Air Force’s preferred term for drones — has grown fourfold, to nearly 1,300. The Air Force is now training more pilots for its drones than for its fighter jets and bombers combined. And by 2015, it expects to have more drone pilots than bomber pilots, although fighter pilots will remain a larger group.

Those figures do not include drones operated by the C.I.A. in counterterrorism operations over Pakistan, Yemen and other countries.

The Pentagon has begun taking steps to keep pace with the rapid expansion of drone operations. It recently created a new medal to honor troops involved in both drone warfare and cyberwarfare. And the Air Force has expanded access to chaplains and therapists for drone operators, said Col. William M. Tart, who commanded remotely piloted aircraft crews at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada.

The Air Force has also conducted research into the health issues of drone crew members. In a 2011 survey of nearly 840 drone operators, it found that 46 percent of Reaper and Predator pilots, and 48 percent of Global Hawk sensor operators, reported “high operational stress.” Those crews cited long hours and frequent shift changes as major causes.

That study found the stress among drone operators to be much higher than that reported by Air Force members in logistics or support jobs. But it did not compare the stress levels of the drone operators with those of traditional pilots.

The new study looked at the electronic health records of 709 drone pilots and 5,256 manned aircraft pilots between October 2003 and December 2011. Those records included information about clinical diagnoses by medical professionals and not just self-reported symptoms.

After analyzing diagnosis and treatment records, the researchers initially found that the drone pilots had higher incidence rates for 12 conditions, including anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance abuse and suicidal ideation.

But after the data were adjusted for age, number of deployments, time in service and history of previous mental health problems, the rates were similar, said Dr. Otto, who was scheduled to present her findings in Arizona on Saturday at a conference of the American College of Preventive Medicine.

The study also found that the incidence rates of mental heath problems among drone pilots spiked in 2009. Dr. Otto speculated that the increase might have been the result of intense pressure on pilots during the Iraq surge in the preceding years.

The study found that pilots of both manned and unmanned aircraft had lower rates of mental health problems than other Air Force personnel. But Dr. Otto conceded that her study might underestimate problems among both manned and unmanned aircraft pilots, who may feel pressure not to report mental health symptoms to doctors out of fears that they will be grounded.

She said she planned to conduct two follow-up studies: one that tries to compensate for possible underreporting of mental health problems by pilots and another that analyzes mental health issues among sensor operators, who control drone cameras while sitting next to the pilots.

“The increasing use of remotely piloted aircraft for war fighting as well as humanitarian relief should prompt increased surveillance,” she said.

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Many States Say Cuts Would Burden Fragile Recovery

States are increasingly alarmed that they could become collateral damage in Washington’s latest fiscal battle, fearing that the impasse could saddle them with across-the-board spending cuts that threaten to slow their fragile recoveries or thrust them back into recession.

Some states, like Maryland and Virginia, are vulnerable because their economies are heavily dependent on federal workers, federal contracts and military spending, which will face steep reductions if Congress allows the automatic cuts, known as sequestration, to begin next Friday. Others, including Illinois and South Dakota, are at risk because of their reliance on the types of federal grants that are scheduled to be cut. And many states simply fear that a heavy dose of federal austerity could weaken their economies, costing them jobs and much-needed tax revenue.

So as state officials begin to draw up their budgets for next year, some say that the biggest risk they see is not the weak housing market or the troubled European economy but the federal government. While the threat of big federal cuts to states has become something of a semiannual occurrence in recent years, state officials said in interviews that they fear that this time the federal government might not be crying wolf — and their hopes are dimming that a deal will be struck in Washington in time to avert the cuts.

The impact would be widespread as the cuts ripple across the nation over the next year.

Texas expects to see its education aid slashed hundreds of millions of dollars, which could force local school districts to fire teachers, if the cuts are not averted. Michigan officials say they are in no position to replace the lost federal dollars with state dollars, but worry about cuts to federal programs like the one that helps people heat their homes. Maryland is bracing not only for a blow to its economy, which depends on federal workers and contractors and the many private businesses that support them, but also for cuts in federal aid for schools, Head Start programs, a nutrition program for pregnant women, mothers and children, and job training programs, among others.

Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia, a Republican, warned in a letter to President Obama on Monday that the automatic spending cuts would have a “potentially devastating impact” and could force Virginia and other states into a recession, noting that the planned cuts to military spending would be especially damaging to areas like Hampton Roads that have a big Navy presence. And he noted that the whole idea of the proposed cuts was that they were supposed to be so unpalatable that they would force officials in Washington to come up with a compromise.

“As we all know, the defense, and other, cuts in the sequester were designed to be a hammer, not a real policy,” Mr. McDonnell wrote. “Unfortunately, inaction by you and Congress now leaves states and localities to adjust to the looming threat of this haphazard idea.”

The looming cuts come just as many states feel they are turning the corner after the prolonged slump caused by the recession. Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, a Democrat, said he was moving to increase the state’s cash reserves and rainy day funds as a hedge against federal cuts.

“I’d rather be spending those dollars on things that improve our business climate, that accelerate our recovery, that get more people back to work, or on needed infrastructure — transportation, roads, bridges and the like,” he said, adding that Maryland has eliminated 5,600 positions in recent years and that its government was smaller, on a per capita basis, than it had been in four decades. “But I can’t do that. I can’t responsibly do that as long as I have this hara-kiri Congress threatening to drive a long knife through our recovery.”

Federal spending on salaries, wages and procurement makes up close to 20 percent of the economies of Maryland and Virginia, according to an analysis by the Pew Center on the States.

But states are in a delicate position. While they fear the impact of the automatic cuts, they also fear that any deal to avert them might be even worse for their bottom lines. That is because many of the planned cuts would go to military spending and not just domestic programs, and some of the most important federal programs for states, including Medicaid and federal highway funds, would be exempt from the cuts.

States will see a reduction of $5.8 billion this year in the federal grant programs subject to the automatic cuts, according to an analysis by Federal Funds Information for States, a group created by the National Governors Association and the National Conference of State Legislatures that tracks the impact of federal actions on states. California, New York and Texas stand to lose the most money from the automatic cuts, and Puerto Rico, which is already facing serious fiscal distress, is threatened with the loss of more than $126 million in federal grant money, the analysis found.

Even with the automatic cuts, the analysis found, states are still expected to get more federal aid over all this year than they did last year, because of growth in some of the biggest programs that are exempt from the cuts, including Medicaid.

But the cuts still pose a real risk to states, officials said. State budget officials from around the country held a conference call last week to discuss the threatened cuts. “In almost every case the folks at the state level, the budget offices, are pretty much telling the agencies and departments that they’re not going to backfill — they’re not going to make up for the budget cuts,” said Scott D. Pattison, the executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers, which arranged the call. “They don’t have enough state funds to make up for federal cuts.”

The cuts would not hit all states equally, the Pew Center on the States found. While the federal grants subject to the cuts make up more than 10 percent of South Dakota’s revenue, it found, they make up less than 5 percent of Delaware’s revenue.

Many state officials find themselves frustrated year after year by the uncertainty of what they can expect from Washington, which provides states with roughly a third of their revenues. There were threats of cuts when Congress balked at raising the debt limit in 2011, when a so-called super-committee tried and failed to reach a budget deal, and late last year when the nation faced the “fiscal cliff.”

John E. Nixon, the director of Michigan’s budget office, said that all the uncertainty made the state’s planning more difficult. “If it’s going to happen,” he said, “at some point we need to rip off the Band-Aid.”

Fernanda Santos contributed reporting.

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Tyler, Perry lead Songwriters Hall of Fame class

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — The Songwriters Hall of Fame is saluting 1970s and ’80s rock ‘n’ roll with its 2013 induction class.

Joe Perry and Steven Tyler of Aerosmith and Mick Jones and Lou Gramm of Foreigner will join the hall of fame this year along with the writers of iconic rock hits “Love Is a Battlefield” and “Heartache Tonight.” The ceremony will be held June 13 in New York.

Aerosmith and Foreigner will get the attention here, but inductees Holly Knight, JD Souther and Tony Hatch also have distinguished careers that helped define the sound of rock ‘n’ roll.

Knight wrote anthemic hits “Love Is a Battlefield” and “Invincible” for Pat Benatar and “The Warrior” for Patty Smyth. She also wrote several songs for Tina Turner, including “The Best” and “Better Be Good to Me,” that became standards for the star.

Souther, who has a role on the music-inspired television show “Nashville,” had a partnership with The Eagles that spawned several hits, including “Heartache Tonight,” ”Victim of Love,” ”New Kid in Town” and “Best of My Love.”

Hatch made his mark during the British invasion, teaming with Petula Clark on hits like “Downtown” and “My Love” that helped shaped the future of pop music.

Perry and Tyler have survived a sometimes contentious relationship to become one of rock’s most successful songwriting teams over the last 40 years. The Rock and Roll Hall of Famers, staples of classic rock radio and pop culture icons, are known for hits like “Sweet Emotion,” ”Dream On” and “Livin’ on the Edge,” and released their 15th studio album last year.

Jones and Gramm are contemporaries of Perry and Tyler who also ruled radio for a time, but they sometimes came at it from a different angle. They could lay down a straight-up rocker like “Jukebox Hero” or “Feels Like the First Time.” But they also could slow it down with hits like “I Wanna Know What Love Is” and “Cold as Ice” that helped foreshadow the ballad-driven rock of the late ’80s.

___

Online:

http://songhall.org

___

Follow AP Music Writer Chris Talbott: http://twitter.com/Chris_Talbott .

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Well: Depression May Stifle Shingles Vaccine Response

Depression may lower the effectiveness of the shingles vaccine, a new study found.

The research showed that adults with untreated depression who received the vaccine mounted a relatively weak immune response. But those who were taking antidepressants showed a normal response to the vaccine, even when symptoms of depression persist.

Shingles, an acute and painful rash, strikes a million Americans each year, mostly older adults. Health officials recommend that those over 60 get vaccinated against the condition, which is caused by reactivation of the same virus that causes chickenpox, varicella-zoster.

In the new study, published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers followed a group of 92 older men and women for two years. Forty of the subjects had a major depressive disorder; they were matched with 52 control subjects of similar age. The researchers measured their immune responses to the shingles vaccine and a placebo shot.

Compared with the control patients, those with depression were poorly protected by the vaccine. But the patients who were being treated for their depression showed a boost in immunity — what the researchers called a “normalization” of the immune response. It is unclear why that was the case.

The authors of the study speculated that treatment of older people with depression might increase the effectiveness of the flu shot and other vaccines as well.

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Room for Debate: Should Companies Tell Us When They Get Hacked?

A National Priority and a Business Priority

Lauren Gelman, BlurryEdge Strategies

Like pollution, an insecure infrastructure is bad for everyone. Disclosing security breaches reintroduces the public's collective interest.

Disclosure Plays Into Hackers’ Hands

Alexander Tabb, partner, research and consulting firm

By requiring companies to disclose security breaches, we would be requiring them to telegraph their weaknesses to the world.

Investors Need to Know

Jacob Olcott, Good Harbor Security Risk Management

It’s not that the events aren’t happening. It’s that you're not being told about them -- despite the S.E.C.'s instructions.

We Need Better Notification Laws

Lee Tien, Electronic Frontier Foundation

Existing laws focus mainly on whether a breach exposed information, not why it happened. Yet the reason can be critical.

More Disclosure Is Not Always Better

Baruch Fischhoff, decision sciences, Carnegie Mellon

People may exaggerate the risk of hacking if they suddenly start hearing about a lot of it. Or they may get used to frequent reports and underestimate the risks.

Improve Digital Hygiene

Joseph Lorenzo Hall, Center for Democracy and Technology

As a nation we devote few resources to creating a common social understanding of how to keep people and computer systems safe.

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Bulgari shows off Liz Taylor's gems

It isn't easy sometimes to be an ordinary person in Los Angeles, so near to and yet so far from the city's glamorous events.

You hear about the grand Oscar parties, but you will never be invited. The award ceremony may be taking place minutes from where you live, but you watch it at home, on TV, in your sweat pants — and you might as well be in Dubuque.

Rodeo Drive too can make you feel like a scrap on the cutting room floor. As you stroll the wide and immaculate sidewalks of Beverly Hills' iconic shopping street, you pass by boutiques you'd feel self-conscious walking into. In the windows are baubles and trinkets you could never in three lifetimes afford.

Which is why it is rather nice to be invited to make a private appointment at the house of Bulgari, the fine Italian jeweler that opened its doors in 1884.

Elizabeth Taylor loved Bulgari jewels. Richard Burton, whose torrid affair with her began during the filming of "Cleopatra" in Rome, accompanied her often to the flagship shop on the Via Condotti. He liked to joke that the name Bulgari was all the Italian she knew.

So it is fitting that starting Oscar week, the jeweler is celebrating the Oscar-winning star with an exhibit of eight of her most treasured Bulgari pieces.

They are heavy on diamonds and emeralds — of rare size, gleam and value.

And Bulgari knows their value well.

After Taylor's death, it reacquired some of the gems at a Christie's auction. One piece, an emerald-and-diamond brooch that also can be worn as a pendant, sold for $6,578,500 — breaking records both for sales price of an emerald and for emerald price per carat ($280,000).

That brooch, whose centerpiece is an octagonal step-cut emerald weighing 23.44 carats, was Burton's engagement present to Taylor. He followed it upon their marriage (his second, her fifth) with a matching necklace whose 16 Colombian emeralds weigh in at 60.5 carats. Bulgari bought the necklace back too, for $6,130,500.

They are in the exhibit, along with Burton's engagement ring to Taylor and a delicate brooch — given to her by husband No. 4, Eddie Fisher — whose emerald and diamond flowers were set en tremblant so that they gently fluttered as Taylor moved.

The jewels are not for sale.

On Tuesday night, actress Julianne Moore wore the Burton necklace, with pendant attached, at a gala for Bulgari's top clients. At the dinner hour, guests were escorted along a lavender-colored carpet to a nearby rooftop that had been transformed into a Roman terrace.

Those honored guests, of course, got private viewings of Taylor's jewels.

But so did Amanda Perry, a healer from West Hollywood who arrived the next morning for one of the first appointments available to the public.

Someone had emailed news of the collection to the 35-year-old Taylor fan. She walked in off the street Tuesday, when the exhibit was open only to press — and Sabina Pelli, Bulgari's glamorous executive vice president, fresh from Rome, was taking sips of San Pellegrino brought to her on a silver tray between back-to-back interviews that started at 5 a.m.

The camera crews were long gone when Perry came back Wednesday. She had the exhibit, and handsome sales associate Timothy Morzenti of Milan, entirely to herself.

In a black suit, still wearing on his left hand the black glove he dons to handle fine jewels, Morzenti whisked Perry off via a private elevator to the exhibit on the second floor. The jewels stood in vitrines mounted high off the ground. Behind them were photos and a slide show of Taylor, bejeweled.

"Which piece would you like to see first?" Morzenti asked her as a security guard stood by. "I personally love the emerald ring."

Then he proceeded at leisure to explain Bulgari-signature sugar-loaf cuts and trombino ring settings, while tossing in occasional Taylor stories.

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Well: Getting Patients to Think About Costs

A colleague and I recently got into a heated discussion over health care spending. It wasn’t that he disagreed with me about the need to rein in costs; but he said he was frustrated every time he tried to do so.

Earlier that week, for example, he had tried to avoid ordering a costly M.R.I. scan for a patient who had been suffering from headaches. After a thorough examination, my colleague was convinced the headaches were the result of stress.

But the patient was not.

“She wouldn’t leave until she got that M.R.I.,” my colleague said. Even after he had explained his conclusions several times, proposed a return visit in a month to reassess the situation and ran so far overtime that his office nurse knocked on the door to make sure nothing had gone awry, the patient continued to insist on getting the expensive study.

When my colleague finally evoked cost – telling the woman that while an M.R.I. might ferret out rare causes, it didn’t make sense to spend the enormous fee on something of such marginal benefit – the woman became belligerent. “She yelled that this was her head we were talking about,” he recalled. “And expensive tests like this were the reason she had health insurance.”

Face flushed, he paused to take a deep breath. “Yeah, I may be all for controlling costs,” he finally said. “But are our patients?”

According to a new study in the journal Health Affairs, his concern about patients may not be far off the mark.

A growing number of initiatives aimed at controlling spiraling health care costs have been championed in recent years, aiming to replace the current model in which doctors are reimbursed for every office visit, test or procedure performed. These programs range from pay-for-performance, where doctors can earn more money by meeting predetermined quality “goals” like controlling patients’ blood sugar or high blood pressure, to accountable care organizations, where clinicians and hospitals in partnership are paid a lump sum to cover all care.

Their uninspired monikers aside, all of these plans share one defining feature: doctors are to be the key agents of change. Whether linked with quality measures, bundled payments or satisfaction scores, it is the doctors’ behavior and choice of treatments that result in savings, goes the thinking.

But as the new study reveals, doctors need to take into account more than just symptoms and diseases when deciding what to prescribe and offer. They must also consider their patients’ opinions and willingness to be cost conscious when it comes to their own care.

The researchers conducted more than 20 patient focus groups and asked the participants to imagine themselves with various symptoms and a choice of diagnostic and treatment options that varied only slightly in effectiveness but significantly in cost. They were asked, for example, to choose between an M.R.I. or a CT scan for a severe long-standing headache, with the M.R.I. being much more expensive but also more likely to catch some extremely rare problems.

When it came to their own treatment, “patients for the most part did not want cost to play any role in decision-making,” said Dr. Susan Dorr Goold, one of the study authors and a professor of internal medicine and health management and policy at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Most did not want their doctors to take expenditures into account, and many made it clear that they would ask for the significantly more expensive medications, procedures or diagnostic studies, even if those options were only slightly better than the cheaper alternatives. “That puts doctors, whose primary responsibility is to their individual patients, in a very difficult position.”

A majority of the participants refused to consider the expenses borne by insurers or by society as a whole when making their choices. Some doubted that one individual’s efforts would have any real overall impact and so gave up considering cost-savings altogether. Others said they would go out of their way to choose the more expensive options, viewing such decisions as acts of defiance and a kind of well-deserved “payback” after years of paying insurance premiums.

Underlying all of these comments was the belief that cost was synonymous with quality. Even when the focus group leaders reminded participants that the differences between proposed options were nearly negligible, participants continued to choose the more expensive options as if it were beyond question that they must be more efficacious or foolproof.

The study’s findings are disheartening. But Dr. Goold and her co-investigators believe that public beliefs and attitudes about cost and quality can be changed. They cite the dramatic transformation in attitudes about end-of-life care as an example of how initiatives to improve understanding can lead people to make higher quality and more cost-effective decisions, like choosing hospices over hospitals.

“We need to begin to talk about these issues in a way that doesn’t turn it into a discussion pitting money against life, and we need to find ways of getting people to think about not spending money on things that offer marginal benefit” Dr. Goold said. “Because it’s going to be tough otherwise trying to implement any cost-saving measures, if patients don’t accept them.”

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DealBook: Carlyle's Profit Fell in 4th Quarter as Growth Slowed

11:18 a.m. | Updated Most of the publicly traded private equity giants proudly reported glowing fourth-quarter earnings.

The Carlyle Group isn’t one of them.

The alternative investment giant disclosed on Thursday a 28 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit from the same time a year ago, as the growth of its portfolio companies slowed. That sent the company’s stock down more than 8 percent by midmorning, to $33.70.

Carlyle reported fourth-quarter profit of $182 million, expressed as economic net income, compared with $254 million in the year-earlier period. That amounts to 47 cents per unit. Analysts on average had expected about 66 cents per unit, according to a survey by Capital IQ.

And Carlyle’s distributable earnings, a measure the firm prefers because it tracks actual payouts to its limited partners, fell 24 percent, to $188 million. Using generally accepted accounting principles, Carlyle earned $12 million in net income.

The results fall short of those of rivals like the Blackstone Group and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts have reported. Private equity firms in general have gained from improvements in the markets, which have lifted the valuations of their portfolios and bolstered their core business of buying and selling companies.

Carlyle attributed the decline in economic net income to a smaller appreciation in the value of its portfolio. It reported a 4 percent gain for the quarter, compared with a 7 percent increase in the period a year earlier.

The decision to delay reaping carried interest from its latest mainstay fund, Carlyle Partners V, weighed on distributable earnings. The company opted to hold off, given the relative freshness of the fund and the influx of new investments like the buyouts of the TCW Group and Getty Images.

Carlyle highlighted its strong fund-raising and gains from selling investments. The firm raised $4.6 billion in new money for the quarter and $14 billion for the year, compared with a total of $6.6 billion raised in all of 2011. It generated $6.8 billion in realized proceeds for the quarter and $18.7 billion for the year, compared with $17.6 billion in 2011.

“We had another excellent year,” David M. Rubenstein, one of Carlyle’s co-chief executives, said in a statement. “Our performance over the past two years was marked by steady, continuous progress across our business.”

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Grapevine on Interstate 5 closed due to ice

By Hailey Branson-Potts

February 20, 2013, 7:19 a.m.

The California Highway Patrol shut down a stretch of Interstate 5 through the Grapevine early Wednesday because of ice.

The freeway was closed about 6:35 a.m. between Castaic and Grapevine Road, said CHP Officer Ed Jacobs. No motorists were stranded, he said.

“Until further notice, it’s Mother Nature’s call” on when to reopen the highway, Jacobs said.

Lingering rain, snow showers and gusty winds were expected to affect mountain regions until midday, according to the National Weather Service. Up to three inches of snow could fall Wednesday at elevations as low as 2,000 feet.

The additional precipitation could create hazardous icy roadways, the National Weather Service said. Snowfall, coupled with heavy winds, could reduce visibility to zero.

A stretch of California 58 in Kern County, which was shut down Tuesday night because of snow, remained closed, according to the California Highway Patrol.

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Lawrence, Chastain, Riva in Oscar battle of youth versus experience

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – A young widow, a bayou girl, an elderly woman, a mother and a CIA agent battle it out on Sunday for the Best Actress Oscar, a race that includes the youngest and oldest nominees in the category’s history.

Jennifer Lawrence of “Silver Linings Playbook,” 9-year-old Quvenzhane Wallis from “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” 85-year-old star of “Amour” Emmanuelle Riva, “The Impossible” lead Naomi Watts and “Zero Dark Thirty’s” Jessica Chastain are competing for their first Academy Award.

“Any one of these five can win, it’s one of the most hotly contested races in recent memory,” Scott Feinberg, lead awards analyst for The Hollywood Reporter, told Reuters.

In the long movie campaign season, awards have been split between Lawrence, Chastain and Riva.

Lawrence, 22, who picked up her first Oscar nomination in 2011 for “Winter’s Bone,” was nominated for her portrayal of an endearing young widow in quirky comedy “Silver Linings Playbook.”

The actress won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice awards in the comedy acting categories, and bested Chastain for the Screen Actors Guild trophy.

“Jennifer Lawrence fits the perfect profile of a winner. (The voters) love an ingenue at the peak of her career,” Tom O’Neil of awards website GoldDerby.com told Reuters.

“She is queen of popcorn pictures with ‘The Hunger Games’ franchise and she is delivering the kind of dramatic performance in ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ that merit her the ultimate crown,” he added.

Chastain, who landed her first Oscar nod for supporting actress for the 2011 film “The Help,” has picked up the Critics’ Choice Best Actress award, and the Golden Globe for drama actress.

Yet Chastain, 35, an early Oscar front-runner for her role as dogged CIA agent Maya in the Osama bin Laden manhunt thriller “Zero Dark Thirty,” has seen some of her support wane in the wake of criticism for the film’s portrayal of torture, and director Kathryn Bigelow’s omission from the Oscar director’s race.

The race between Chastain and Lawrence has been fueled by reports of a rivalry between the two, which Chastain was forced to deny through her Facebook page last week, calling Lawrence “utterly charming and a great talent.”

But with French actress Riva winning Best Actress at Britain’s version of the Oscars this month, the star of foreign-language entry “Amour” could pull off an upset.

AN OPEN RACE

At age 85, Riva is the oldest Best Actress nominee for her performance as a retired music teacher felled by a series of strokes in “Amour.” Many pundits believe this year is an opportune time to recognize the French actress for her five-decade film career.

“Riva may be helped by the fact that people want to do this now. They’re not going to put it off for her as they might for the other nominees, who are all considerably younger,” Feinberg said.

Chastain and Watts, 44, are nominated for playing characters based on real people. But Feinberg suggested that Watts, who plays a mother torn from her family by a tsunami in “The Impossible,” had another advantage.

“(Voters) like to see that kind of physical transformation and Naomi is playing a real person, which they think is a taller order … you need to provoke more than respect, you need to provoke awe or enthusiasm,” Feinberg said.

“The problem with Jessica Chastain, as good an actress as she is, the part is very cold. It’s hard for people to get excited about it,” he added.

O’Neil noted that the 5,800 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences – a predominantly male, over 50s group of movie professionals who select the Oscar winners – often vote for younger, attractive actresses in a close contest.

That would give Lawrence or perhaps child star Wallis an edge.

Wallis was a surprise Oscar nominee for her first acting role in mythical drama “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” playing a defiant young girl in an impoverished Louisiana bayou community.

“Oscar voters love little girls,” O’Neil said, citing Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin who won in the supporting category when they were children.

“Just because she is an adorable 9-year-old does not mean we should dismiss her as a contender. Oscar voters have historically shown that they love to give big hugs to little girls,” O’Neil said.

(Reporting By Piya Sinha-Roy; editing by Jill Serjeant and Stacey Joyce)

Movies News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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